At the end of the primaries, who has the numbers? Obama or Clinton? Does it matter?

Real Clear Politics keeps track of six versions of the popular-vote total. They are, in ascending order of inclusivity: (1) the popular vote of sanctioned contests; (2) the total of sanctioned contests, plus estimated votes from the Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington caucuses; (3) the popular vote plus Florida; (4) popular vote plus Florida and the caucuses; (5) the popular vote plus Florida and Michigan; (6) popular vote plus Florida, Michigan, and the caucus estimates. After last Tuesday, Clinton now leads in two of these six counts.

So far Obama has a razor-thin majority on the numbers. On June 3, 2008, although no one knows for sure, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Clinton might come out ahead in the numbers whether as undisputed or disputed leader.

The independents voters who are drawn by the particular appeal of the candidate might not come. But, democratic voters just like Republican voters almost always come home after their candidate loses. The problem arises when a candidate's strong and passionate supporters believe that their canidate didn't lose. Then, what are party leaders going to do? Assuming Clinton wins the popular vote, Barack Obama and his supporters will be forced to explain why that doesn't matter.