Beware of overconfidence in politics: The problem of Obama

In his 2005 the State of the Union speech, a confident President Bush strode before the Congress and the nation and painted a picture of the world that was strangely rosy, given the many challenges America faces in Iraq, the Middle East, and around the globe. While State of the Union speeches are designed to boost national confidence and pride, Bush failed to prepare the nation and the world for the difficult steps that remain to fulfill the great goals he set out. The president was, in fact, be overconfident—with the result that the American people withdraw their support when the need is most apparent.

You see overconfidence and pride are dangerous. Pride Interferes with Clarity. Pride Obscures Intuition. As I have closely observed, the problem with the Obama campaign is not really Obama's self-confidence. It is a good virtue to have in moderation. The problem is that his self-confidence is growing into an over-confidence.

"A man’s pride brings him low, but a man of lowly spirit gains honor.”— Proverbs 29:23. Why do I dwell on these matters? Because the more I watch Obama and his senior advisers the more stunned I their over-confidence and towering pride. Just read the accounts of his trip to Europe and the interactions of his advisors with the press. Look at his grand 'This is the moment...'speech when he clinched the nomination. Or, the 'We are the one we have been waiting for' speech. All these shows self-confidence crossing into over-confidence and pride.

As soon as a little pride begins to well up, there is God to humble you. It would be the same with Obama.

Rev. Michael Pfleger - Another headache

Rev. Michael Pfleger is another embarassment for Obama and his campaign. True,Obama should not be held accountable every time a lunatic stands up and utter total non sense. He should not be expected to. There are many supporters out there on both camps who would continue to make damging and silly remarks as the Rev. Michael Pfleger did. The candidates should not be expected to address such remarks every time they are shown on YouTube.

However, the Rev. Michael Pfleger remarks are damging to Obama because of the apparent association of the Rev with Obama's church, spiritual home. And, he denounced the remarks as he should. Good for him. Still though the overwhelming reception of Rev. Michael Pfleger's non sense remarks by the congregation, I tell you, is not a good thing at all. In fact, it will be skillfully used by the Republican camp to paint Obama as falwed in his judgment as far as association goes.

McCain targets Obama for not going to Iraq

Obama last visited Iraq in January, 2006 for a two-day tour. The issue of Obama not spending enough time visiting Iraq and understanding the situation there on the ground is going to be raised by Republicans. Read Here

Scott McClellan's Confessional memoir

Scott writes 'I know the president pretty well. I believe that, if he had been given a crystal ball in which he could have foreseen the costs of war – more than 4,000 American troops killed, 30,000 injured, and tens of thousands of innocent Iraqi citizens dead – he would have never made the decision to invade, despite what he might say or feel he has to say publicly.'

Where in the world has Scott seen a leader governing using a crystal ball that tells him/her the consequences of his/her decision'? Or does Scott believe if the American casuality were to be 2 or 3 and the Iraq casuality 100 or so, the President would have made the decision to inavde and that would be acceptable?

I really don't understand Scott's point.

At the end of the primaries, who has the numbers? Obama or Clinton? Does it matter?

Real Clear Politics keeps track of six versions of the popular-vote total. They are, in ascending order of inclusivity: (1) the popular vote of sanctioned contests; (2) the total of sanctioned contests, plus estimated votes from the Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington caucuses; (3) the popular vote plus Florida; (4) popular vote plus Florida and the caucuses; (5) the popular vote plus Florida and Michigan; (6) popular vote plus Florida, Michigan, and the caucus estimates. After last Tuesday, Clinton now leads in two of these six counts.

So far Obama has a razor-thin majority on the numbers. On June 3, 2008, although no one knows for sure, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Clinton might come out ahead in the numbers whether as undisputed or disputed leader.

The independents voters who are drawn by the particular appeal of the candidate might not come. But, democratic voters just like Republican voters almost always come home after their candidate loses. The problem arises when a candidate's strong and passionate supporters believe that their canidate didn't lose. Then, what are party leaders going to do? Assuming Clinton wins the popular vote, Barack Obama and his supporters will be forced to explain why that doesn't matter.

The Obama Learning Curve

Obama senior foreign policy adviser Susan Rice, channeling Bill Clinton, said it all depended on what the definition of a "leader" is. "Well, first of all, he said he'd meet with the appropriate Iranian leaders. He hasn't named who that leader will be." (Turns out, Mr. Obama has said he will meet with . . . Mr. Ahmadinejad. Read here

Women rise to defend Clinton

The drawn out primary has been a good thing to happen for the exercise of democracy where the turn out in elections has been a mute one for a long long time. It is a good change. Yet, some nuances are emerging as the contest continues in large part due to the nature of contestants. One is a woman and the other is a black man.

Naturally, gender and race issues lurks into the process even if people genuinely want to avoid them.

AFP (Agence France-Presse ) reported that women rise to defend Clinton. Read more